Wednesday, January 05, 2005

Democracy will win in Iraq

I've been telling everybody for some time that the turn-out for the Iraqi elections in January 2005 is going to be overwhelming: Shiites and Kurds will turn out at a higher rate than the Americans did in November 2004, and Sunni turn-out will also be impressive (though significantly lower). Remember that the American presidential election saw a 60% American voter turn-out. Now Baghdad Dweller gives a poll published today: 78% of those in Baghdad--where the governor has just been shot and the violence has been the worst--say they will turn out to vote:

Baghdad Dweller
Election poll from Al-sabah
January 5th, 2005

This poll was published in Al-Sabah newspaper showing that “terrorists” have failed to to dissuade Iraqis from votin, many be willing to take on the risks necessary to wrench back control of their nation. Even in a dangerous, quasi democratic election.

The poll was of 4974 Iraqis living in and around Baghdad.

The following is the translation of the poll and the results:

Will the security problems cause you to?
Not come out and vote the day of elections = 18.3%
Come out and vote the day of elections = 78.3%
No opinion = 3.4%

Do you support the Iraqi Government having its own official newspaper?
Yes = 67.7%
No = 30.9%
Do Not know = 1.4%?

Do you support military action against the terrorists?
Yes = 87.7 %
No = 11.1%
Don’t Know = 1.2%


At Wednesday, 05 January, 2005, Blogger Grumsalot said...

Yes, I do believe that the terrorists and their American opponents have succeeded in pissing off the Iraqi voters to the point where most of them will vote. They want their country back. First it was the soviets, then Saddam, then this war between two foreigners that, for some reason, have chosen their country to fight their own war which has and continues to claim the lives of thousands. So yes, I agree with you that they do want their country back from them (Zarqawi) and us (US).

At Thursday, 06 January, 2005, Blogger GrenfellHunt said...

This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.

At Thursday, 06 January, 2005, Blogger GrenfellHunt said...

Hey, thanks for dropping by! It's a new blog, and it's nice to know someone's out there!

I think the model for this in some ways is El Salvador: western observers were astonished when millions turned out for the first election, and stood in long lines shouting at the foreign press: tell the truth!

I don't know about the shouting, but I suspect were looking at something similar on 30 Jan 2005.

Thanks for dropping by!

At Thursday, 06 January, 2005, Blogger Grumsalot said...

Indeed. Problem that the White House, and the rest of the coalition, faces is that they might not vote for the "right guy (Ayad Allawi)." If the Iraqis end up electing a cleric to power, we will be in trouble. I think that Ayad better start all-out with some good old PR, because, according to, only 51% of people in the most pro-western district of Baghdad support the occupation + interim guy.

At Friday, 07 January, 2005, Blogger GrenfellHunt said...

As you may notice, I've been having some adventures with my template! It's not clear to me that the administration has any long-term commitment to Allawi; I think their biggest concern is simply that the elections come off successfully. I'd be interested in what information you've come across re: the possibility of a Shiite clerical government being elected in Iraq. My impression is that Shistani has seen the failure of that model in Iran, and doesn't want a clerical government in Iraq--which is part of why he's not running, but strongly encouraging democracy. But I'd be grateful if you'd post any info you have on this.

At Friday, 07 January, 2005, Blogger Grumsalot said...

I admit that I have no information regarding the likely winners in Iraq. My argument is purely logical; and logic can often lead to outcomes that occur only in theory. Basically, the path goes like this; Allawi endorses working closer with the US: given; less than 51% of all voters support US+coalition occupation: given; voters may not elect Allawi because he suppports the occupation. I do, however, know that the White House endorses Allawi. During one of the presidential debates against senator John Kerry, George Bush said, "I support Allawi...he's a good guy."


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