Wednesday, July 27, 2005

McCain vs Giuliani--the case for McCain

Patrick Ruffini is checking the political winds with his on-line poll. George Allen is in the lead with Rudy Giuliani in second. John McCain gets dusted.

But McCain does much better in real polls with a real public.

Here's the polling data:

Dec 2004--43----------45
Feb 2005--47----------49
Mar 2005--43----------44
Mar 2005--41----------47
Apr 2005--46----------47
Apr 2005--40----------42
Average margin=+2.3% Giuliani

Feb 2005--42----------54
Mar 2005--41----------43
Mar 2005--38----------49
Apr 2005--42----------50
Apr 2005--38----------45
Jun 2005--35----------54
Average margin=+9.8% McCain

In a nutshell--Giuliani is a northern GOP liberal, and he polls like one. He does not offer a clear, sharp contrast with Hillary, except on terrorism. He can still probably defeat any Democratic nominee. But he is a markedly weaker candidate than McCain.

McCain is almost perfectly designed to appeal to the Perot voters who deserted the GOP in 1992 and 1996 for Bill Clinton.

Is McCain a RINO? Well, I've had my share of critical things to say about McCain. But: A+ on the War on Terror. An A for his loyal support of the President. An A+ for his call to expand the military. He can re-unify the country on the War on Terror. That is no small point: the most serious casualty of the mismanaged occupation in Iraq has been the national unity that we had prior to the fall of Baghdad.

On judges: I've been critical. But the compromise has worked so far. His tough rhetoric is exactly what Frist should have supplied. More to the point, McCain is dead-solid on pro-life. The Federalism talk is pitch-perfect; pro-life, but in a way that doesn't sound extreme to moderates.

It will be interesting to see how things develop with Giuliani v McCain--but if forced to choose, right now it's McCain.


At Wednesday, 27 July, 2005, Anonymous Anonymous said...

I could be mistaken, Rudy and Hillary (she is talking toward the center) seem to hold similar stances on abortion, gay marriage, gun confiscation, tax and spend, etc. IMHO the only difference in either's stance occurs when urinating. Also, Rudy's marital history is Dem/Lib MSM fodder: first married to a cousin? and annulled, second both unfaithful. How long the third?

At Wednesday, 27 July, 2005, Blogger True Blue said...

You are right to focus on the judicial system and not just the highest court. We now have a system where someone can get a longer sentence for drug possession than for trying to blow up LAX.

At Friday, 29 July, 2005, Anonymous Anonymous said...

Rudy G. could never have been elected mayor of NYC if he were not a northeastern liberal in social matters. He won't make it through the primaries.


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