0-5: Why we can't trust the CIA on Iran's nukes
From the New York Times: Estimates of just when Iran might acquire a nuclear weapon range from alarmist views of only a few months to roughly 15 years. American intelligence agencies say it will take 5 to 10 years for Iran to manufacture the fuel for its first atomic bomb.
And then at the end of the article: As much as anything, officials worry about the unknown. They note that the United States missed signs that a country was about to go nuclear with the Soviets in the 1940's,  the Chinese in the 1960's,  India in the 1970's and  Pakistan in the 1990's.
"People always surprise us," said a senior nuclear intelligence official who was not authorized to speak publicly. "They're always a little more cunning and capable than we give them credit for."
0-4. And if I remember correctly that the CIA got fooled on North Korea as well, that makes 0-5.
And if the CIA is wrong about Iran, we might not know until we see the mushroom cloud over Washington, DC.